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Information on the Fastlane scholarship programme for Master's students. Based in Australia, we publish industrial hemp and cannabis news, research and industry reports from around the world. Learn more about Hemp Gazette. Sign in. Password recovery. A breakdown of the Washington cannabis labor force found 38 percent of the employees worked in retail dispensaries and 62 percent worked in cultivation and production businesses. Based on these two states, we could assume that approximately 35 percent of the New York cannabis workers would be in cannabis dispensaries and the remaining would be distributed across the rest of the supply chain.
Forecasting the economic impact of adult-use cannabis requires making assumptions about the potential size of the market.
The report then used these market sizes to forecast potential tax revenues. For consistency and ease of comparison with other New York-based reports, we adopt the same market-size assumptions for our analysis.
As seen in Table 3, state employment reports show that across the three states there are The impacts of the industry will continue to multiply as they flow through the New York economy. The marijuana industry will purchase additional supplies from New York-based suppliers and the people employed in the industry will spend their earnings in their local economies. Multiplier analysis is commonly used to estimate the wider-reaching economic impacts of industrial activity.
IMPLAN software was used to calculate the potential impact of the development of three industries: cultivation, manufacturing, and dispensaries. Because the software does not include marijuana industries, the closest related sectors were selected. The total impact figures include the economic activity of the cannabis firms, the additional activity in the supply chain, and employee spending in the economy.
The economic output is the goods and services generated in New York as a direct or indirect result of the creation of a commercial cannabis industry. The multipliers assume that a portion of the goods and services used in the industry will be imported from outside of New York, which means a portion of the economic impact will trickle outside of state lines. The consulting group MPG has developed proprietary cannabis input-output tables and calculated related multipliers to address the limitations of traditional multiplier analysis.
They calculate a marijuana retail multiplier of 2. It is likely that this approach underestimates the impact of the emerging cannabis industries. Adult-use cannabis in New York would require capital investments in large-scale cultivation facilities across the state. All medical marijuana cultivation and manufacturing facilities in New York are currently located in Upstate New York.
This geographic trend will likely continue since these facilities tend to have large footprints and need lower-cost water and energy inputs. New York should expect a temporary economic boost from the large-scale investments made shortly after legalization.
The estimates above have been based on a statewide rollout of the recreational cannabis industry. The current proposal would allow all counties and cities with a population larger than , to pass a local resolution that would prohibit marijuana growers, manufacturers, and retailers from operating within the borders. As of April , Suffolk, Nassau, Rockland, Putnam, and Chemung counties were weighing legislation to opt out and were considered likely to ban sales in the event of legalization, and North Hempstead has already passed legislation banning the sale of recreational marijuana.
The recent experience in Massachusetts suggests that many communities will choose to opt out or delay rollout. By the end of October , 80 communities in the state had enacted a ban on recreational marijuana retail. Another had placed a temporary moratorium on commercial cannabis that would allow them to further consider the issue or enact zoning rules. Given the current infancy of the industry, there is no evidence available on the economic impact of municipal opt-outs.
New York municipalities that have chosen to opt out would not directly benefit from the job creation associated with the new industry and forfeit their share of any marijuana tax revenue. Depending on the geographic distribution of the opt-out, residents could still pursue cannabis employment in neighboring counties.
The potential impact on statewide revenue is dependent on the geographic distribution of municipal bans. Already, cannabis-related company valuations have been affected by the incoming presidency.
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